F1 Preview - Ferrari Owners' Club

Before there is too much wailing, gnashing of teeth and rending of Puma garments, the quickest times at Valencia and Barcelona were set a month after the Ferrari last tested there, the Scuderia having reverted to its previous practice of testing on its own - lately at Mugello. However, what is worrying for the season-opener is that Ferrari was one of only three teams to test in Bahrain and were comfortably and consistently out-paced by Honda when running back-to-back; well at least the 248 F1 was, the quickest car was an F2004, fitted with a 'restricted' V10, whatever that means. This old tipo has run throughout the close season and in this Ferrari is unique for a top team.

The 248 has also had reliability issues and to my eyes looks dated compared to the Honda, Renault and McLaren cars, a fact which Ferrari seem to have acknowledged by re-hiring Nicholas Tombazis from McLaren.

It looks like the aforementioned three will be Ferrari's main rivals. The Honda has run quickly and reliably all winter, they also have a strong driver pairing in Button and Barrichello and the team seems settled and stable. The only question mark is whether either of their drivers have that 'extra something' which Schumacher M, Alonso and Raikkonen clearly posses; even if they don't, the team seem a good bet for the constructors' title. The fact that their test driver Anthony Davidson set the fastest time and broke the lap record at the final pre-season test in Valencia was a nice way for them to have finished.

Stability is not a condition enjoyed by Renault and McLaren, with Alonso's move to McLaren in 2007 effectively destabilising both teams. Alonso clearly has all he needs to take the title again, in terms of personal skills and a machinery, but will the team provide the environment which will enable him to do so, especially if it comes down to a late season battle? You cannot imagine that they would be keen for him to take the latest information to their rival. Fisichella will pick up points and may win races, but I don't see him as a championship contender.

Raikkonen has gone quickly over the winter. Like Alonso, there are no doubts about his ability but how will the uncertainty over the future affect his and the team's season? Team mate Montoya shows all the signs of having thrown his toys out of the pram even before the season starts and there is simply no evidence that he has the intelligence and consistency to put a championship-winning season together. However I do expect him to pick up more points than Massa......

A recent survey suggested that Toyota were the top-spending team in F1 last year, coughing up $499.05 million. This has to be the make-or-break year for them, nothing less than wins will do. Their new car was the first to appear and went OK early on, but it hasn't exactly set the world on fire lately. Also it's clear that neither of their drivers are good enough to put a championship winning season together.

I'm really looking forward to seeing how Williams do. Following the divorce from BMW there is much evidence of "back to basics" racers' approach, the team having divested itself of corporate paraphernalia like private jets etc., acquired Cosworth V8s, which even Honda rate as the best engine and signed Nico Rosberg. It's nice to see a team taking a punt on a young, quick bloke from a junior formula rather than joining in the seemingly endless process of driver re-cycling. Signing Alex Würz (from McLaren) as a test driver shows technical acumen and Narain Karthikeyan commercial acuity. The team may simply be out-resourced, but let's hope they provide a few surprises and I just love the fact that Jenson is paying for a large bit of it!

William's erstwhile partners BMW have decided they can do F1 better on their own and bought the Sauber team. They've signed the quick and popular Nick Heidfeld and decided it would be cheaper to keep Jacques Villeneuve on for another year rather than sign his redundancy cheque. They haven't shown very well in winter testing and are down-playing their chances, as well they ought to.

Red Bull Racing have had a difficult winter with their first all new car. Initially the car had engine overheating problems, this has been sorted and they were third quickest (V8) overall in Valencia and fourth quickest (chassis) in Valencia but the car has yet to complete a full GP distance. They obviously inherited a good (Jag) package last year, made good management decisions, including drivers, but rather than choose to build quietly on this Dieter Mateschitz has obviously decided to chuck money at it like it's going out of fashion. They've poached Adrian Newey from McLaren (replacing Günther Steiner who's off to join their NASCAR team), so the RB1's chief designer Rob Taylor has gone the other way.

Mateschitz chucked even more money at F1 in buying the Minardi team (so I should at least buy a can or two of his syrup for ridding the sport of Paul Stoddard), he then did swopsies for half of it with Gerhard Berger in return for half of the latter's transport business. What's all that about? The re-named Scuderia Toro Rosso will be using thinly disguised RB1s fitted with the only restricted V10 on the grid, so the package should be reliable. Their driver squad of Vitantonio Liuzzi and American Scott Speed looks as though commercial factors weren't the only ones taken into consideration in their selection.

This does not seem true of Midland F1. After a difficult first season they have produced their own car, essentially from the old Jordan team, rather than the Dallara as was originally intended. The car looks nice and it'll be an interesting to see how they fare against STR.

Finally, F1's 11th and newest team Super Aguri. Seemingly bankrolled by Honda just to keep Takumo Sato in F1 following massive bad publicity in Japan after they dumped him in favour of Rubens. For the first few races they'll be using made-over 2002 Arrows chassis, which were in Paul Stoddard's recent garage sale, so he'll be laughing all the way to the bank. I would love to hear the story of what's been done to make this possible technically, financially, legally and logistically. It'll be fascinating to see how far this bitza is off the pace, but good luck to them.

Honda are my favourites for the constructors' title from Renault, then Ferrari or McLaren, with Williams getting in amongst the manufacturers' teams. As for the drivers' title, I reckon it'll be between Barrichello, Button, Alonso, Raikkonen and Schuey.

President di Montezemolo has said "I expect Schumacher to win the championship". I think he'll be third. I really hope Luca's right and I'm wrong!