F1 - Ferrari Owners' Club

Four months after the last race the F1 circus starts off its 2008 tour in Melbourne in a fortnight. What a relief! It seems such a long time and somehow the constant stream of F1 "news" (187 items in February on the Autosprout website alone) paradoxically seems to make the break interminable. I'm not at all sure it wasn't better when we just had the comic dropping through the letterbox every Thursday and that was your lot!

Anyway, last week saw the final official F1 test before Australia. It took place in Barcelona, where happily, there was no re-occurrence of the racist abuse Lewis Hamilton suffered before. Looking at the times, McLaren and Ferrari seem on top, though Trulli was quickest on the last day with Coolthud second for Red Bull. These times were against the run of form and were said to be "qualifying simulations".

Trulli has said that Toyota have turned the corner, but for this exercise I have discounted both his and Crazy Dave's final day times. Dave was quickest on the final day last year as well. Strangely enough, this coincided with the arrival of team owner Dieter Mateschitz.

What I have done again this year is to average out all the times for all the teams and their drivers (excluding those above). As you can see from 2007, they were a remarkably accurate reflection of how the season turned out especially for the higher places. The lower spots are more difficult to predict as one good result, even against form, can totally change the picture. It's interesting that Ferrari (as would have McLaren) scored more than twice as many points as the next team - BMW Sauber. Despite all this, happily the top two swapped first and "second" places. Of the others, Red Bull and Toro Rosso came up the order when they'd got to grips with the complexities of their Adrian Newey-designed car. Honda were the biggest losers but no-one (apart from possibly Jenson Button) realised quite how bad their car was.

It looks certain from winter testing that the battle for the titles will again be between Ferrari and McLaren, with the Grey Empire a bit quicker at the moment. This was true at the same point last year but whereas McLaren fell apart under the pressure Ferrari did the opposite. After a couple of wobbles (in their first season without Schuey and Ross), the Scuderia dug deep and worked hard as a team to pinch the Driver's title for Kimi and win the Constructors on merit. They should now be the strongest team without any serious weaknesses, though there is still a small but lingering doubt in my mind about both drivers' will to fight when the car is not the best.

McLaren must be at a disadvantage due to a number of factors. The end of the tempestuous relationship between themselves and Alonso must be a relief, but his abilities will have been an great asset, at least in the early part of the season. With his departure the team leader role effectively falls to Lewis Hamilton, although the team says that he and new signing Heikki Kovalainen are of equal status. I am sure both will win races, but will the still inexperienced Hamilton be able to lead from the front as Schuey and Alonso did? Then there's the organisational and psychological difficulties of having to run out of two small garages right up the cheap end of the pit lane - a consequence of their disqualification. Finally, the spy saga rumbles on with the involvement of the Italian justice system and there are regular rumours about Ron Dennis' future.

Williams look to have made real progress with their new car and have one of the new stars in Nico Rosberg, however no-one (including themselves) expects them to be title contenders and recognise that even third place is going to be a tough fight. Kazuki Nakajima is said to be the price Williams are paying for free Toyota engines and this cost saving enabled them to fight off Macca's advances to Rosberg. I expect the young Japanese to show flashes of speed but be erratic, and this won't help when it comes to accumulating constructors' points.

Red Bull are looking quite good but I just don't think that either of their veterans (Coulthard and Webber) are up to it. Renault are one place worse than last year but must be a good bet for third or fourth. The return of Alonso will strengthen the team and re-inspire it. He has ruled himself out of the title fight but I would not be surprised to see him win a race or two especially if circumstances upset the established order. Nelson Piquet Jnr. has replaced Kovalainen, who did a good job last year. Piquet is undoubtedly quick and as for the most important question on motor racing "who is paying for it and why?" Piquet Jnr. and his Old Man chatting to the President of Brazil about Renault's factory there gives une petite hintette. There's no Renault factory in Finland as far as I know.

Force India (neé Jordan/MFI/Spyker) has been taken over by Indian billionaire Vijay Mallya. So far he looks to be going about the thing properly, strengthening the team technically and hiring drivers on merit. The combination of youth (Adrian Sutil) and experience (Giancarlo Fisichella) is always sound for most teams. Fisi wasn't strong enough for the top level but his vast experience will be of benefit to the team and the real pressure will be off him. However I think sixth overall is a bit unrealistic as a final result.

After 2007 BMW Sauber (Nick Heidfeld, Robert Kubica) looked set to move up to challenge for wins this year but the new car has not been good. We'll see if they can recover the position. Toro Rosso are still running last year's car and have set some good times over the winter. Sebastian Vettel has really lifted the team and I'm sure is a future GP winner. He was drafted into the Red Bull in Barcelona to replace the injured Coulthard and the fact that he only did one day must have worsened TR's position. The other two days the car was driven by ChampCar multiple champion Sebastien Bourdais who clearly is not (yet) as good.

Bringing up the rear are the three Japanese teams. Toyota have said they've made a revolutionary step forward with their TF108 and Trulli was quickest on the final day of the final test. There has been no other evidence of any speed. New signing, 2007 GP2 Champion Timo Glock, (replacing Ralf Schumacher) must be a decent driver but he sure ain't going to turn the team around.

Toyota team principal Tadashi Yamashina recently stated "To become stronger it is more important to improve the level of organization in general rather than to rely on the power of one person". In this they are diametrically opposed to their Japanese rival Honda who are pinning everything on the arrival of Ross Brawn. I love my Lexus, but I think I'd rather have Ross in charge of my F1 team (and Schumacher M driving).

At the moment this year's Honda (drivers Jenson Button and Rubens Barrichello) doesn't look much better than last year's disaster. I'm sure things will get better but Ross Brawn himself has ruled out making much of a step forward until new regulations come into force in 2009. As for the final team, the Honda "B" team Super Aguri (Takumo Sato and Anthony Davidson), are cash-strapped and so have missed a number of tests whilst negotiations in Japan go on about their future. Will they actually appear in Melbourne?

All that now remains for me to say is roll on 16th March and Forza Ferrari!!