30.6.13

Ferrari’s form had not been impressive in the free practice sessions before qualifying but there was no reason to suspect the team would fall behind both Force Indias and a Torro Rosso. However, from the outset of qualifying itself with both Alonso and Massa showing weak pace in Q1 to go 14th and 15th respectively, it soon became clear that Ferrari were not on pace.

This became unambiguously clear in Q2 which saw Massa consigned to his 12th place grid slot, despite no obvious mistakes and driving “not a bad lap” in the words of his race engineer. As might be expected, Alonso did progress to Q3 and although he lay a possible more promising 6th after the first run with the harder tyre, ultimately qualified 10th on the softer tyre – the compound of choice for the rest of top ten.

Mercedes again locked out the front row but even with Pirelli bringing the harder compounds to a race weekend and whatever knowledge they undoubtedly learned from the supposedly Pirelli run tyre test after the Spanish Grand Prix, it is to be expected that they will drop back over a race distance. On this topic, despite Mercedes being found to have breached the regulations by the FIA, exclusion from the three day young driver test does not appear to be a proportionate penalty. Every team in the pitlane would gladly swap the young driver test for three days private testing with Pirelli.

With this matter now formally closed by the FIA, no doubt with the desire to continue to ensure the participation of a leading manufacturer in the sport at the back of its mind, all the F1 teams will simply have to accept the situation as it is. But let us be clear that Ferrari’s growing lack of competitiveness is ultimately not a consequence of a failure to effectively manage the tyres but seemingly ineffective updates – as Alonso hinted at in the post qualifying interviews.

This leaves Red Bull in a strong position, able to wait for the most opportune moment to pressure Mercedes with no immediate threat from behind. It seemed unlikely that even Alonso would be able to scramble onto the podium from 10th on the grid.

This Grand Prix will undoubtedly be remembered for a succession of high speed tyre failures in the race but it arguably represented a real pivot point in the 2013 World Championship. Coming into the weekend Ferrari lay second in both Championships, the product of Vettel and Alonso trading wins from Malaysia to Spain. Although Ferrari’s form was weaker in Monaco and Canada, it was not clear whether this was because the team were slipping backwards or whether it was a consequence of racing at two circuits with atypical characteristics - high traction requirements and low lateral loads - compared to the rest of the calendar. This ambiguity has been resolved by the British Grand Prix and it is not good news for Ferrari because as Alonso said after the race “the podium finish was down to luck; we were not fast enough”. The shift in the pattern of results over the past three races is indicative of a real change in the underlying competitiveness of the leading teams.

Quite how lucky Ferrari, and Alonso particularly, were is clear once the race is analysed. Alonso and Massa started from 9th and 11th respectively after a disappointing qualifying. Massa had a phenomenal start into fifth by the end of the opening lap whilst Alonso has his first (self confessed) lucky moment of the race in not losing his front wing. The next significant moment was the first of the tyre failures, suffered by the leading Mercedes of Hamilton. Not even Hamilton burns through his tyres after eight laps and the early nature of the failure was the first indication that this could be something more systemic. This also had the effect of dropping a quicker car than the Ferraris to the bottom of the field, albeit at the expense of putting Vettel in the lead, where it looked likely that he would stay.

Most of the leading cars stopped on or around lap ten and this was when Massa suffered his tyre failure, dropping him from 4th to the back of the field to join Hamilton. Although Massa would subsequently fight back to sixth, displaying an ability to carve through the pack that we have not seen for a long while, it would have been interesting to see what he could have done without the failure. Alonso would take over the fourth place slot after scything past both Lotuses and a Toro Rosso, taking advantage of his fresh tyres. Indeed, it would be Vergnes’ Toro Rosso that would next experience a tyre failure, catalysing the first safety car. Fast forward until after the second round pit stops and Alonso and Massa were in 5th and 13th respectively.

However, the next slice of luck to arrive would be a rare mechanical failure for Vettel on lap 42, just as Alonso made his third and final pitstop. The safety car was deployed for a second time to recover Vettel’s car and this left Alonso eighth with eight laps remaining but on fresh tyres. Alonso revels in this situation, and he attacked without mercy or mistake. A compliant Button was his first victim before narrowly escaping disaster in the slipstream of Perez. It was at this moment that the tyre on the McLaren failed and the carcass narrowly missed the closely following Alonso. Raikkonen, Sutil and Ricciardo now stood between Alonso and a podium but when Alonso scents points to be had he is relentless and they were all duly despatched. A thrilling charge and great way to end a controversial race which would end with Alonso on the bottom step of the podium, behind Webber in second and Rosberg the victor.

However, Alonso was hotly pursued across the line by Hamilton – who had been dropped to 22nd by his puncture and made one less stop. This performance by the Mercedes on a track such as Silverstone suggests their race tyre wear problems are by and large behind them and as a result that they will be an important third force in the 2013 Championship. With nearly half the season completed it is clear that Red Bull have not only a points advantage but a performance advantage, certainly over Ferrari and to a lesser extent Mercedes. Ferrari came to Silverstone as Red Bull’s closest challenger but now that mantle has been decisively handed to Mercedes. Ferrari need to deliver an upgrade of the magnitude of Red Bull’s 2012 title winning upgrade from Singapore onwards to alter the trajectory of this championship. There is no points cushion for the team to defend as in last season and so it is upgrade or lose.

Alonso cut a rather subdued figure at the end of the race despite a decent result, as if he knows another season is slipping away after a great start.

Click here for FIA lap chart.

Stefano Domenicali: “We came to Silverstone with considerably different expectations in terms of performance to those we demonstrated this weekend and now our main objective is to immediately get an understanding of why we are in this situation. If we want to continue to fight for the championship, it is vital that we improve the car, because in performance terms, our rivals have made a further step forward”.

Fernando Alonso: “If I’d been told this morning that I would have ended up on the podium, I would not have believed it possible. Yesterday in qualifying, we finished a long way down and our expectations for this race were to aim for a fifth or sixth place, hoping to score as many points as possible. We can say we were lucky on a few occasions, beginning with Perez and then at the first stop with a completely worn out tyre – fortunately at the last corner – and then with Vettel’s retirement. we must try and improve, starting with the very next race in Germany. Only there will we understand if we have indeed slipped backwards or if this weekend was a one-off”.

Felipe Massa: “I am very pleased with my race which this time was truly impeccable. After a fantastic start and a perfect first lap, maybe one of the best of my career, I managed to drive an attacking first stint. On lap 10, when I was right in the middle of the corner at Turn 5, my left rear tyre failed and I had to pit. Now, our greatest concern revolves around safety, because even if I can’t really tell what happened today, it’s unacceptable having to drive knowing you are not safe. Even if, luckily, nothing serious happened, what we saw is very dangerous”.